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= Exposure to climate change impacts =
= Exposure to climate change impacts =
As part of a study on the exposure of African great ape sites to climate change impacts, Kiribou et al. subm. extracted climate data and data on projected extreme climate impact events for the site. Climatological characteristics were derived from observation-based climate data provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP, www.isimip.org). Parameters were calculated as the average across each 30-year period. For 1981-2010, the EWEMBI dataset from ISIMIP2a was used. For the two future periods (2021-2050 and 2071-2099) ISIMIP2b climate data based on four CMIP5 global climate models were used. For future projections, two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) were used. RCP 2.6 is a scenario with strong mitigation measures in which global temperatures would likely rise below 2°C. RCP 6.0 is a scenario with medium emissions in which global temperatures would likely rise up to 3°C by 2100. For the number of days with heavy precipitation events, the 98th percentile of all precipitation days (>1mm/d) was calculated for the 1979-2013 reference period as a threshold for a heavy precipitation event. Then, for each year, the number of days above that threshold was derived. The figures on temperature and precipitation anomaly show the deviation from the mean temperature and mean precipitation for the 1979-2013 reference period.
As part of a study on the exposure of African great ape sites to climate change impacts, Kiribou et al. subm. extracted climate data and data on projected extreme climate impact events for the site. Climatological characteristics were derived from observation-based climate data provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP, www.isimip.org). Parameters were calculated as the average across each 30-year period. For 1981-2010, the EWEMBI dataset from ISIMIP2a was used. For the two future periods (2021-2050 and 2071-2099) ISIMIP2b climate data based on four CMIP5 global climate models were used. For future projections, two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) were used. RCP 2.6 is a scenario with strong mitigation measures in which global temperatures would likely rise below 2°C. RCP 6.0 is a scenario with medium emissions in which global temperatures would likely rise up to 3°C by 2100. For the number of days with heavy precipitation events, the 98th percentile of all precipitation days (>1mm/d) was calculated for the 1979-2013 reference period as a threshold for a heavy precipitation event. Then, for each year, the number of days above that threshold was derived. The figures on temperature and precipitation anomaly show the deviation from the mean temperature and mean precipitation for the 1979-2013 reference period.
'''Table 7. Estimated past and projected climatological characteristics in Tai NP'''
'''Table 7. Estimated past and projected climatological characteristics in Taï National Park'''
{| border='1' cellpadding='5' cellspacing='0' class='EE-table'
{| border='1' cellpadding='5' cellspacing='0' class='EE-table'
|
|
|'''1981-2010'''
|past
|'''2021-2050, RCP 2.6'''
|near term
|'''2021-2050, RCP 6.0'''
|
|'''2071-2099, RCP 2.6'''
|long term
|'''2071-2099, RCP 6.0'''
|
|-
|
|
|RCP2.6
|RCP6.0
|RCP2.6
|RCP6.0
|-
|-
|Mean temperature [°C]
|Mean temperature [°C]
'''Table 8. Projected exposure of apes to extreme climate impact events in Taï National Park'''
'''Table 8. Projected exposure of apes to extreme climate impact events in Tai NP'''
{| border='1' cellpadding='5' cellspacing='0' class='EE-table'
{| border='1' cellpadding='5' cellspacing='0' class='EE-table'
|
|
|'''No. of years with event (2021-2050, RCP 2.6)'''
|near term
|'''% of site exposed (2021-2050, RCP 2.6)'''
|
|'''No. of years with event (2021-2050, RCP 6.0)'''
|
|'''% of site exposed (2021-2050, RCP 6.0)'''
|
|'''No. of years with event (2070-2099, RCP 2.6)'''
|long term
|'''% of site exposed (2070-2099, RCP 2.6)'''
|
|'''No. of years with event (2070-2099, RCP 6.0)'''
|
|'''% of site exposed (2070-2099, RCP 6.0)'''
|
|-
|
|RCP2.6
|
|RCP6.0
|
|RCP2.6
|
|RCP6.0
|
|-
|
|No. of years with event
|% of site exposed
|No. of years with event
|% of site exposed
|No. of years with event
|% of site exposed
|No. of years with event
|% of site exposed
|-
|-
|Crop failure
|Crop failure
|-
|-
|}
|}
<div><ul>
<div><ul>
<li style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top;"> [[File: PrecipAnomaly Tai NP.png | 400px | thumb| right | Precipitation anomaly in Taï NP]] </li>
<li style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top;"> [[File: PrecipAnomaly Tai NP.png | 400px | thumb| right | Precipitation anomaly in Taï NP]] </li>
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