Bailly swamps

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Summary

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• Central chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes troglodytes) & Western lowland gorillas (Gorilla gorilla gorilla) are present in Bailly swamps.
• It has been estimated that 4,988 (95% CI 2,466-10,086) gorillas and 2,127 (95% CI 1,134-3,989) chimpanzees occur in the site.
• The great ape population trend is unknown.
• Main threats include poaching.
• The site benefits from law enforcement and anti-poaching patrols conducted in the adjacent Lac Télé Community Reserve.

Site characteristics

Table 1. Basic site information for Bailly swamps

Species	'Pan troglodytes troglodytes, Gorilla gorilla gorilla
Area	3,770 km²
Coordinates	Lat: 1.951998 , Lon: 16.866552
Type of site	Non-protected area
Habitat types	Subtropical/tropical swamp forest
Type of governance

IUCN habitat categories Site designations

Ape status

Table 2. Ape population estimates reported for Bailly swamps

Species	Year	Occurrence	Encounter or vistation rate (nests/km; ind/day)	Density estimate [ind./ km²] (95% CI)	Abundance estimate (95% CI)	Survey area	Sampling method	Analytical framework	Source	Comments	A.P.E.S. database ID
Gorilla gorilla gorilla	2006				4,988 (2,466-10,086)	Bailly swamps	Line transects		Stokes et al. 2010
Pan troglodytes troglodytes	2006				2,127 (1,134-3,989)	Bailly swamps	Line transects		Stokes et al. 2010

Threats

Table 3. Threats to apes reported for Bailly swamps

Category	Specific threats	Threat level	Description	Year of threat
10 Geological events		Absent
12 Other threat		Absent
5 Biological resource use	5.1 Hunting & collecting terrestrial animals	Present (unknown severity)	Poaching present in the area (Stokes et al. 2010).	2010-Ongoing
1 Residential & commercial development		Unknown
2 Agriculture & aquaculture		Unknown
3 Energy production & mining		Unknown
4 Transportation & service corridors		Unknown
6 Human intrusions & disturbance		Unknown
7 Natural system modifications		Unknown
8 Invasive & other problematic species, genes & diseases		Unknown
9 Pollution		Unknown
11 Climate change & severe weather		Unknown

IUCN Threats list

Conservation activities

The site benefits from law enforcement and anti-poaching patrols conducted in the adjacent Lac Télé Community Reserve (Stokes et al. 2010).

Challenges

Table 5. Challenges reported for Bailly swamps

Challenges	Specific challenges	Source	Year(s)
	Not reported

Enablers

Table 6. Enablers reported for Bailly swamps

Enablers	Specific enablers	Source	Year(s)
1 Site management
2 Resources and capacity
3 Engaged community
4 Institutional support
5 Ecological context
6 Safety and stability

Documented behaviours

Table 7. Behaviours documented for Bailly swamps

Behavior	Source
Not reported

Exposure to climate change impacts

As part of a study on the exposure of African great ape sites to climate change impacts, Kiribou et al. (2024) extracted climate data and data on projected extreme climate impact events for the site. Climatological characteristics were derived from observation-based climate data provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP, www.isimip.org). Parameters were calculated as the average across each 30-year period. For 1981-2010, the EWEMBI dataset from ISIMIP2a was used. For the two future periods (2021-2050 and 2071-2099) ISIMIP2b climate data based on four CMIP5 global climate models were used. For future projections, two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) were used. RCP 2.6 is a scenario with strong mitigation measures in which global temperatures would likely rise below 2°C. RCP 6.0 is a scenario with medium emissions in which global temperatures would likely rise up to 3°C by 2100. For the number of days with heavy precipitation events, the 98th percentile of all precipitation days (>1mm/d) was calculated for the 1979-2013 reference period as a threshold for a heavy precipitation event. Then, for each year, the number of days above that threshold was derived. The figures on temperature and precipitation anomaly show the deviation from the mean temperature and mean precipitation for the 1979-2013 reference period.

The estimated exposure to future extreme climate impact events (crop failure, drought, river flood, wildfire, tropical cyclone, and heatwave) is based on a published dataset by Lange et al. 2020 derived from ISIMIP2b data. The same global climate models and RCPs as described above were used. Within each 30-year period, the number of years with an extreme event and the average proportion of the site affected were calculated (Kiribou et al. 2024).

Table 8. Estimated past and projected climatological characteristics in Bailly swamps

Value	1981-2010	2021-2050, RCP 2.6	2021-2050, RCP 6.0	2071-2099, RCP 2.6	2071-2099, RCP 6.0
Mean temperature [°C]	25	26.2	26	26.5	27.5
Annual precipitation [mm]	1549	1607	1601	1621	1598
Max no. consecutive dry days (per year)	16	10.6	11.3	9.8	12.3
No. days with heavy precipitation (per year)	6.9	10.8	10.8	10.9	11.9

Table 9. Projected exposure of apes to extreme climate impact events in Bailly swamps

Type	No. of years with event (2021-2050, RCP 2.6)	% of site exposed (2021-2050, RCP 2.6)	No. of years with event (2021-2050, RCP 6.0)	% of site exposed (2021-2050, RCP 6.0)	No. of years with event (2070-2099, RCP 2.6)	% of site exposed (2070-2099, RCP 2.6)	No. of years with event (2070-2099, RCP 6.0)	% of site exposed (2070-2099, RCP 6.0)
Crop failure	12.5	0	10	0	7	0	26	0
Drought	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.5	16.67
Heatwave	7	58.06	6.5	51.11	8	66.67	13	80.56
River flood	0.75	0.16	2	0.37	2	1.12	1.25	0.9
Tropical cyclone	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Wildfire	30	0.47	30	0.51	29	0.46	29	0.42

• 

  Precipitation anomaly in Bailly Swamps
• 

  Temperature anomaly in Bailly Swamps

References

Kiribou, R., Tehoda, P., Chukwu, O., Bempah, G., Kühl, H. S., Ferreira, J., ... & Heinicke, S. (2024). Exposure of African ape sites to climate change impacts. PLOS Climate, 3(2), e0000345.

Stokes EJ, Strindberg S, Bakabana PC, Elkan PW, Iyenguet FC, Madzoké B... & Rainey, H.J. (2010). Monitoring great ape and elephant abundance at large spatial scales: measuring effectiveness of a conservation landscape. PLoS ONE 5(4), e10294. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0010294

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